What happens if the no votes prevail and the following occurs...
*Doug takes it to arbitration...
*We get the arbitrated rates (which according to the MOU are in the neighborhood of 16.5%) but factoring in a new Delta rate we may or may not get 20% because of the United ratio...
*We then try to get more on top of the parity review by selling our 'gives' (I'm confused how the gives only come to $85 million when it was said the Dom/Int were worth $20 million a year), so I'll be generous and call it $200 million total...
*We then have an arbitrated deal worth less than the current deal with the same give aways and possibly a duration of a year or two shorter leaving us with the same negotiating power for the next contract...
*But then Doug does what he says he'll do, and offers us the current deal.
And here's the 'what happens if'...
Won't the union take a bigger hit in credibility if they have to offer another vote between the two contracts? I see the potential for the union to look even weaker come the next contract. With the cost neutral arbitration Doug can't lose, that contract, with the gives, no matter what, will be worth less than the current offer. We've still giving up the concessions, the contract pays less overall and the union is forced to again offer Doug's current offer as an alternative to the arbitrated one.
Where can we improve on the arbitrated contract if our 'gives' are valued less than the $1.7 billion currently offered? Because to make the arbitrated contract worth more we have to sell some of the concessions (in the hopes that their real value is worth more). If it comes up short we're left holding our dic.... shorts and Doug has the opportunity to trump us again.
What path in arbitration gives us an upper hand to use in the next contract?