We are so far below the market that attrition costs the company less than a pay raise would cost.

Let's say our pilot payroll is in the neighborhood of $80 million a year. If we received an across-the-board 20% raise, the cost to the company would be $16 million. (This still leaves us well short of the industry average for flying an Airbus, btw)

If we say it costs $25k to train up a new pilot, the break-even point on attrition is roughly 640 pilots per year or a little more than 50 per month.

Of course these numbers are only my wild guesses, but run whatever numbers you believe to be true and I bet you come to the same conclusion. An attrition rate of less than 5 per month doesn't break the squelch.

I think the only way we'll see a raise to stem attrition is when staffing levels start leading to sufficiently-expensive operational problems. Start canceling even one flight a day at a cost of $50k per flight and you're quickly talking real money to an airline the size of Frontier.

Just my humble opinion.