Originally Posted by 24/48

I can only speak for UAL and what our UPA permits. In short, our scope is lot more restrictive than folks think since they focus in on the fact that we allow outsourcing of up to 76 seats now, tunnel vision if you will.

With that said, there are a lot of restrictions that come with those larger jets, and our management team is starting to realize this. Looking at the 2015 fleet plan we will be parking 8 Q400's, 53 E145's, 9 E135's, 18 CRJ200's, 15 CRJ700's, and 9 E120's. We will also be taking delivery of 49 E175's for a net loss of 63 regional aircraft. This reduces the UAX fleet to 503 YE 2015. Mainline will park 2 744's, and 13 752's while taking delivery of 11 787-8/9's, and 25 737-700/800/900's for net gain of 21 aircraft.

YE 2015 the company will be at 240 70/76 seat aircraft which is 15 under the limit permitted in the UPA. To go above that 255 the company has to introduce a "New Small Narrow body" to mainline and they air actively pursuing that NEW fleet. They tried to get us to bite off on more 737's or Airbuses to satisfy the requirement to go from 255 to 325, we said no thanks.

Management wants to be able to maximize the language in UPA 1-C-1-g, I think you can download a copy of the UPA on APC, then there comes a total UAX fleet cap of 450, a ratio of 50 seat retirement vs. 76 seat delivery, and a cap on 70 seat aircraft. On top of that, as the company adds 76 seat aircraft they trigger more restrictive block hour percentages.

Essentially, we know they want the max number of 76 seat aircraft to be outsourced and we set that at 223 plus 102 70 seat aircraft giving them a total of 325 70/76 seat aircraft to outsource. To get there they will need to add to mainline with new aircraft of a different make than what is currently on property (think CS300 or E190/195). Additionally, they need to park more 50 seaters permanently than 76 seat deliveries.

All of the money UAL is spending on UAX is directly tied to 70/76 seat fleet. The 50 seater will have a place for the next 5 years but after that there's no telling. TSA is getting a batch of the "newest" 50 seaters that are pushing 10+ years old and have a significant number of cycles.

My guess is that 5 years from now we'll be putting the 50 seater to pasture at UAL. You'll have mainline flying everything above 76 seats with management scrambling to fill classes, much like regionals today. It'll be at that point where something will finally be done on a more permanent basis between regionals and majors, and possibly something more than a simple flow through.

Sorry for the long winded response, but I hope this answered your question.