Originally Posted by FNG320
Realistic,
I concur with DD. The number of hours flown by each pilot will still remain about the same as it currently is. If you take 1000/12 you get 83.333 per month. That is the max we can fly by the FAA. 90 per month would get you 1080! Can't happen. So the hours per pilot will remain at 80-90 hours average. Thus the number of line holders will remain the same. But since the number of lines flow per day will be reduced (cause the number of hours flown per pilot per day is increased), there may be a reduced "minimum reserve number". Say form 12/15 to 10/12. That means more reserves for PTO/UTO/Triptrade/IROPS etc.
Since the number ofline holders will remain the same, as flying increases the need for line holders will increase at the same rate. Thus the time on reserve will be the same.
I think the benefits to quality of life by increasing productivity will be the real payoff for everyone. Line holder QOL = increase Reserve QOL = remain the same.
You are guessing that the hours will remain the same, and I'm not talking about 90 hours every month.
I'm talking about a small increase in productivity per pilot. If someone blocked an average of 88 hours every month you get 1056 block hours per year but you aren't actually going to block that time. You have two weeks of vacation, ground school, PTS, PC, PT, travel to training, PTO, and sick time. You're actual block will probably come out well below 1000 hours.
What I'm saying is that if you take a base of say 50 crews and you simply add 3 hours per month per crewmember of average productivity, you've just driven two pilots onto reserve.
With regard to running the airline with fewer reserves, I'm a career reserve (not by choice), and I have no interest what-so-ever in running the airline with fewer reserves. We run reserves like a backwater 135 operation.