Originally Posted by
Grumpyaviator
Raising new-hire pay will not attract pilots that don't exist, not as quickly as we need them. It's not a matter of getting them to come here instead of somewhere else because they don't have them either.
Movement will attract pilots, but is a problem that won't be solved without growth. That's mgmts dilemma because they want to shrink to become more manageable.
Movement will happen, regardless of whether or not we are awarded additional flying. The attrition we saw in 2014 will easily be exceeded in 2015. I honestly believe that if we had a pipeline of new hires that could satisfy our stated goal of hiring 40 pilots a month, we would see, by the end of 2015, upgrades extend all the way to 2010 date of hires, and be as low as a 2 year upgrade by the end of 2016. However, if we can't back fill our departed pilots, it will force management to park more airplanes and size the airline to the level that they can staff.
Attrition without replenishment= contraction