Originally Posted by
CBreezy
Oooo!! I want to play. Okay, here goes: Envoy will cease to exist in 8 months. See? I can make unfounded conclusions based on a qualitative "analysis" of an incomplete data set and completely ignore any kind of context.
Listen old man, I know when you went to college, they didn't use calculating machines, but that doesn't give you an excuse to make outlandish statements.
Those numbers tell no story at all. In the 6 months prior to the growth announcement, TSA managed to hire over 60 FOs. While not a lot of pilots at a place like ExpressJet, this resulted in a nearly 20 growth in the pilot group; all this without any promise of growth and an upgrade that had been hovering around 1-2 years. Isn't it possible that the lack of FOs in classes is because recruiting is focusing on CQFOs? No, that couldn't be it. The company will need 100 more Captains, in less than a year, than there are pilots on the current seniority list. It also couldn't be because, as of the announcement, TSA was very overstaffed on FOs. Nope, that couldn't be it either. Confirmation bias is a strong thing. Most ignorant people are unaware of its affects on opinions.
Actually that is true: I learned weight and balance with a slide rule. Learned to navigate without a magenta line present in the aircraft, and how to calculate a precise descent without the use of an FMS; the old man could out fly one of you self entitled spoiled rotten kiddos any day
As far as the rest of your statement, perhaps 5 classes is not enough of a "data set", I could agree with that. I most likely have inserted a little "old man" 20+ years experience watching this stuff as well.
So, how about a bet? I'll bet $1000 that this little experiment fails for most.