Originally Posted by
sailingfun
Good article in AvWeek about fuel and fleet plans. Anderson is quoted as saying we have not altered our fleet plan for the lower cost of fuel. The article also refutes some of the wildely inaccurate estimates on fuel costs and yearly savings for Delta posted here. Our cost per gallon is going to come in at 2.45 to 2.50 a gallon in the first quarter. It was 2.62 4q last year.
Huh? Who on here has been making estimates on fuel cost to begin with?
You don't have to read avweek, the military's R/C airplane magazine, this was in the January 20th call on 4Q2014 that we all listened to back on January 20. Here were the fuel highlights that I don't believe are in dispute:
- $2.45-$2.50 for 1Q 2015
- $2.25-$2.35 for entire 2015
- $2.82 is the price Delta budgets everything on.
Paul Jacobson:
Moving onto fuel, fuel expense declined by $342 million for the quarter, driven by the sharp decline in market fuel prices. Our all in fuel price was $2.62 per gallon which was $0.43 lower year-over-year. Our results this quarter included $180 million in settled hedged losses which were offset by $105 million profit at the refinery. At December 31st we had $925 million in hedge margin posted with counterparties which we suspect will be substantially reduced by June 30 based on current prices. Based on current prices, we are projecting an all in fuel price of $2.45 to $2.50 per gallon for the March quarter.
For the full year we are forecasting an all-in price of $2.25 to $2.35 per gallon which is approximately $0.50 to $0.60 lower than 2014. These lower prices should produce over $2 billion in lower fuel expense including hedges. For 2016 we are well positioned for full downside participation should fuel remain at these levels.
As I mentioned, the refinery made $105 million profit for the December quarter which represents $151 million improvement versus last year.
But note the following:
Richard H. Anderson - Chief Executive Officer
We actually use pretty high fuel prices in all of our planning and this was a shared experience with Ed and I, we’ve learned this over the years that planning with a low fuel price will only disappoint and planning with a high fuel price if you end up being wrong and the fuel price is lower, you’ll be pleased. But it’s really important when you’re planning an airline over the long term, or making a 30 year MPV decision on buying an airplane to use a very high fuel price otherwise you’re not going to get an ROIC and a free cash flow number that you’re going to like.
Paul, our fuel price for our assumption for our budget was $2…?
Paul A. Jacobson - EVP and Chief Financial Officer
$2.82.
Richard H. Anderson - Chief Executive Officer
$2.82 even though we knew it was going to be lower. But that way you plan the capacity on a much more muted basis and you make sure that you put the strategies in place to hold yield and RASM.
As to the fleet, the same day highlights:
From either RA, GH or PJ:
- upgaging the domestic fleet
- our fleet can run at this level of CapEx very easily for a very long period of time on our fleet so we don’t see some big fleet order coming.
- We think there’s going to be an opportunity for a bunch of used airplanes for us at some point here giving all the NEO deliveries in the narrow body world.
- We just placed our wide body order, we’re fine on wide bodies so the fleets in good shape and the run rate cap ex that you saw this year, the $2.1, that vicinity is a good run rate because we’ve got to keep our ROIC above that 18% so it’s going to reduce debt and higher shareholder cash returns.
- We haven’t changed our fleet plan by one airplane since fuel has come down. So, could you? Yes. Have we? No.
- So, there’s just a natural tendency that it’s going to flow against net debt because we’re pretty disciplined about not wanting to take up our aircraft cap ex and we already have the 50 wide bodies ordered and we’ve got 717, 737, A321s coming and on the margin they’ll be a few more airplanes as we hit 30 years of age on some of our domestic fleet where we’re going to have to make some purchases but I don’t see the cap ex commitment changing from where we’ve been.
- The total shell count (aeroplanes) for 2015 will be down about 10 year-on-year.
- We did retire all the airplanes that we had contemplated. The activation of the 747 was a swap so it was not a net new airplane to the system and we saw the opportunity, which is a great opportunity with our partners at China Eastern, starting in April we will be able to be co-terminus with them.