Originally Posted by
PilotCrusader
How many FOs are passing the upgrade and what percentage is due to the lack of 1000 121 time? When is it expected that the 1000 hour bubble will burst? That is, when do you think the newbies will hit 1000 hours and then cause the fast upgrade to slow?
My guess is a year and half to get 1000 on average. You guys kinda went gangbusters jan-feb. So basically, is it forecast to back up a little by mid to late summer? Not saying the upgrade is going away, just wondering what the forecast is
I don't know if there's enough data in the public domain to give a reasonable forecast. For that you'd need to know:
- How many new hires were prior 121 (my class in Oct had about 5 out of 32 pilots, and 3 that were going to be instructors. 3 of the 7 have the time outright, 2 are short. Add 2 more mil guys who only need 50 more hours, unless a major calls them first)
- How fast the noobs are building time (probably pretty fast once on the line)
- How many guys are taking the first available upgrade, or bypassing for whatever reason (no way of knowing)
In any event, in
this post (which I'll quote below) I've laid out the mathematics for relatively fast upgrades for the next year. Maybe not 7-8 months, but certainly a lot faster than a lot of other regionals currently offering retention and hiring bonuses.
Hiring about 70 a month, attrition at about 20, net gain of 50 pilots a month while a given new hire moves up 20 places. I spoke to someone today who interviewed yesterday and was offered a 4/13 class, so about two months from interview to class date.
If the most junior guy on 2/16/15 is 1,100, using the above assumptions the most junior person on 4/13/15 is going to be 1,300.
A year after that (4/2016) he'll be very near to 1,000 while the total pilot group will be topping out around 1,900.
A year after that (4/2017) he'll be in the 750 range while the pilot group is still around 1,900 (still 16 more options out there though).
If said pilot has no 121 time when he's hired, and upgrades in 4/2017 he'll be a line holding Captain when he upgrades. If said pilot has 121 time he'll upgrade a lot sooner.
A pilot starting class in 4/2016 (say #1,900) is likely to see a lot higher attrition, especially as the Legacies, Majors, Cargo, and LCCs start to ramp up hiring. Since this group has roughly a thousand pilots now and 20 a month, it's reasonable to assume that someone hired as #1,900 could see his number go up 40 a month. If that's the case, and even assuming some slowing of his seniority gain as his seniority increases, he being 1,200-1,300 or so after a year is very possible, and well within upgrade territory a year after that is likely.