FWIW, my impression on the first year pay raise rumor was that it's kind of a stop-gap measure to stay relevant in attracting talent. Yes, we all realize there are 10k+ apps out there, but maybe it's the top 5% of those that all the legacies want (or at least want to have the option to hire).

Delta and American have made improvements in their respective contracts, and although United's contract isn't inferior yet, I think lagging behind in profits and remnants of the merger stagnation make it a tough call for the top prospects applying to all three legacies. This effectively would be a way of sweetening the pot without a full blown contract negotiation (especially if in a few years management isn't keen on negotiating quickly).

Purely a theory though