Follow me here guys.

As a way of finding a "historical norm" I sampled two seniority lists, one from 2011 and one from early 2014.

On both lists, the junior CA spot reached ~54% of the way down the list.

2011... 360/673 = .534

2014... 380/711 = .534

• All things being equal, to me, this means once things settle down, and the bases are well established the Jr. CA will be at 54% down the list.

• So by the end of this year when our pilot group is ~1000, in a perfect world, the Jr Ca would be #540

• Also at the end of this year, the senior September 2013 new-hire, factoring in 2/mo attrition, will be #587, only 47 numbers short of CA.

• HOWEVER - because things are so 'up-in-the-air' right now, there will be a number of Senior Denver FO's that will not upgrade right away, thereby altering the 54% standard.

In otherwords it only takes 47 Denver FOs, who in a perfect world would have upgraded, to decide to wait, and presto the 9-2013 newhire is in Upgrade class by end of this year. ( Just 27 months from hiring on. )

And worse case, if no Denver FOs wait... Just stick with the 54% standard: (9/2013 hire #587) / .54 = 1087. And our pilot group should be 1087 by mid 2016. So worse case it's a 33 month upgrade for the 9/2013 newhire.