Originally Posted by
Aero1900
That all sounds very reasonable except that the vast majority of our pilot group is committed to living in the Denver area, and as Chicago grows bigger, there will be more and more FOs bypassing upgrade so they don't have to move or commute. Your historical look back is great, but an east coast base and a much larger Chicago base really throws off the balance. Captain upgrades will go more junior than your math suggests
Aero - I totally agree with you!!! That is why I included both scenarios. I picked the end of 2015 as a 'viewing point' for simplicity. I guess what you're saying is that even the 27 month estimate will be beaten. Cool man!
I just think it's helpful to look at speculative projections against the backdrop of WORSE CASE scenarios. It helps fortify the projection when you clearly notice it isn't really that far off from worse-case.