Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Operations don't feel very sustainable right now, with 3400 pilots. The buffer needs to account for management pilots, pilots in training, ground/sim instructors, sick time, mil leave, FMLA, and vacation. The average pilot as SKW probably takes three weeks/year vacay (some much more, new-hires much less).
I observed mesa lose about 50% of their pilot group in one year...attrition due to other airlines hiring led to junior manning, which led to more attrition which led to across-the-board vacation canx and more junior-manning, which led to even more attrition. Key factor was that, in addition to CA's going to majors, other "good" regionals were hiring mesa FO's.
I agree 100%. Not sure what the actual buffer should be. 10% seems a little low, but it's just a SWAG.
I "think" the retirement of the Bro (although forecasted for awhile) is an effort to slow the hemorrhage of pilots. Additionally, the rumor I've heard is that we are currently turning down some flying (emphasize rumor) to avoid the predicament RAH found themselves in, having to cancel flights for lack of crews. I understand this is occurring but not at the same rate.
WRT attrition, my seniority number has gone up about 40 spots since the last bid package came out. I would imagine that rate with remain relatively constant or increase over the next several months. Reading the major forums and looking at the hiring threads, there is a lot of movement. Southwest got rid of the type requirement
.
In many ways I believe having a lack of pilots is a good thing. It SHOULD stimulate pay increases and competition between companies to attract the talent. However, it also results in a hit to QOL for EVERYONE, not just us poor bastards on reserve.