That's an interesting point. I would think the assumption would be that low time pilots would stick around longer b/c they are less experienced and therefore less valuable to other companies.

It seems the trend is opposite though. The higher time pilots want a place to stay put for several years and the low timers just want the jet time and then move on if they don't get the instant gratification. I know when I started this job search, my primary concerns were domicile location and long term pay growth. Anybody with crappy second year pay got knocked out as well as airlines who didn't have bases in the eastern half of the country.

I would suggest that low time pilots will become a growing expense for regionals as they experience more predatory hiring practices (like the RAH bonus) to attract qualified pilots. You don't need the time anymore, its the 121 jet training that they want. Pilots fresh out of school with little to no personal commitments will have no problem jumping ship at the first sign of a better deal until they get more than 18-24 months seniority.

I predict two outcomes. One, higher first year pay or signing bonus(gets around union issues). Two, more training contracts and enforcement of training contracts. I'm guessing the latter is more likely.