Using APC info,
Airline Profile Categories | AirlinePilotCentral.com
The following airlines are arguably the "get hired there and never leave until retirement" companies
Company - Pilots employed
AAL (USAir + AA) - 15822
UAL - 11357
SWA - 3000
DAL - 12430
FDX - 4288
UPS - 2538
JBLU - 3000
HAL - 627
ALK - 1567
Total Pilots: 55,777
With that said, you stated that 101,000 pilot jobs require an ATP and First Class Medical. Well, we just observed that 55K are accounted for at the majors, all will have ATP's by the time of hire, so it is reasonable to conclude that every single one has an ATP.
What you are not considering is that roughly the SAME AMOUNT of TOTAL pilots EMPLOYED at the above carriers (55K) are left over (part of the "101,000" statement) as pilots elsewhere.
So it could be said that "45,000 potential airline pilot applicants exist"
Thats right:
45,000
if the majors REPLACED each pilot, one for one, with someone from the outside, if we are using statistics, we already have enough bodies.
Now, more realistically, FedEx hired (hold on, fasten you seat belts), 7 pilots this year. I wonder if they had a shortage ?
SWA is dropping a type requirement. OK, is this GOOD or BAD ? Kinda Bad, for the applicant.
No, this is not "good" for the applicant. As now every swinging Tom Dick and Harry will apply, and your application is now further buried in the pile. GOOD for SWA, they can nickel and dime the applications more. BAD for you.
What about military pilots ? Are they counted in the data ? What about the non-ATP holder, but 1000 TT and 300 multi ? He expects to get his ATP in 24 months. Is this counted ?
Etc ?
No Pilot shortage at the majors.
Acme Night Freight Express hiring Baron captains ? maybe (nobody is fighting for those jobs anyway). FedEx ? Delta ? No shortage
GAO ? You trust the government ?