The most junior captain spot awarded is 9 years (or so)... That's today. In the future, who knows? My two cents is that it will come down a bit, maybe 7-8 years due to the bubble in hiring 2009-2011'ish and then climb back up again due to the sheer amount of people we've been hiring recently. Your guess is as good as mine for someone hired today. Regardless of upgrade time the future at Alaska is bright...