Originally Posted by
u4gotthecoffee
312 thanks for the response! I heard about endeavor. It's exciting to see supply and demand theory at work in the regional industry. I know the industry is horrible right now at the regional level (I have friends at the regionals) but I cant help but try to embrace the "there's only one way you can go when you hit rock bottom" philosophy, and I have to believe that is where the industry has been and that it's on it's way out. God forbid it gets any worse than it already was/is.
I here you on the shrinking aspect, but I have a suspicion that it will be temporary and then will reverse considering the contract language. I think that at least some, if not all, the 90 frames will land on property in the future. Building off what you said about management locking in a crappy contract because they know they will have to offer way more in the near future, they will try to entice, and I think it will work, new hires with those frames and the flow because its a cheaper alternative than paying first year FO's 50k like they deserve. If anything the contract is 10 years right? Can AA shrink the regional to nothing per the contract or is there some sort of guarantee/clause for a minimum fleet? I really don't know.
Also, they can't shrink envoy to the point that it puts the flow pilots out of a job right? So as of right now isn't that like 1500 pilots, or even more? What are your thoughts on how things will really turn out, considering the 10 year contract, and the pilots on property right now that have flow through rights? Do you think that envoy will eventually get all 90 of those frames?
We will not get all 90 airplanes. Our management has no interest in running an airline anymore, for them it is nothing more than an organization from which they extract a big paycheck. With regard to the operational side of things, they have proven that they have no interest in investing even the basic amount of money required to keep the place running smoothly on a daily basis. According to the DOT, envoy has had the worst on time rating out of any airline
in the nation for 4 months in a row now. It will only get worse. By the time you graduate, this airline will not exist in its current state. AAG can easily shrink it down to nothing. There is a flimsy furlough protection clause in the contract, but I've had the company breach the furlough section of the contract on me personally in the past, and they will gladly do it again tomorrow if it suits their needs.
Even for current FO's at this company, flow through is a joke. Senior FO's will have to wait about 2.5 to 3 years to flow over under ideal circumstances. Keep in mind these are guys who already have 7+ years in at a crappy regional and who are highly marketable everywhere else in the industry right now. History has shown that flow through agreements are highly volatile by nature (ask the guys who were hired at Eagle before 2001 and are JUST NOW flowing over). Waiting for the elusive carrot at the end of the stick that is flow through is a bad move for anyone not going within the next year. For a prospective new hire, it's completely useless in its current iteration.