Originally Posted by
scottm
Not in the airline sector. I've worked in manufacturing for around 30 years, formerly management at a Fortune 500 company, currently helping manage a company that builds custom industrial automation for manufacturing.
I'm happy to hear an outside perspective. So you fly now?
It is my understanding from multiple sources that until 2013, foreign students at U.S. flight schools went home with an ATP. It is no longer true, but would account for a lot of ATPs overseas. One of the unintended consequences of the 1500-hour rule, is that foreign students are no longer getting ATPs, will no longer be as willing to come fly for U.S. airlines if wages go up here. Good for us I guess.
Foreign students didn't obtain an ATP because it was impracticable, expensive and completely unnecessary to stay in the USA until they had 1500 hours. They usually spend about two years training in the US and then go back to their country with a Commercial and approximately 250 hours. The 1500 hour rule did not change the requirements for the ATP certificate which has always been 1500 hours. Prior to the 1500 hour rule, pilots were permitted to work for a scheduled 121 airline with only a Commercial pilot certificate except that it used to be unusual for an airline to hire such a low time pilot.
I believe the GAO study excluded Commercial pilots without a current medical which would have excluded all those foreign pilots who went home once their medicals expired although I think that was a separate number. Either way, the number of foreigners with a commercial certificate isn't significant as far as the results of the study.
...Regionals are LCCs, that have been taken under the wings of majors, sometimes grown by the majors from tiny ULCCs. This was not done out of benevolence, it was a very successful strategy to control competition. LCCs are all about the lowest costs possible: lower prices and fewer comforts - that certainly applies to regionals. Independent LCCs undercut the majors to gain market share wherever their costs are lower than majors are charging, and it has worked very well to keep majors from charging, in some cases, even what it costs to operate.
This isn't an accurate statement. In fact many of the regional airlines are wholly owned subsidiaries of the majors which makes them nothing more than a mechanism for contract busting B-scales for pilots. Since "Regional Airlines" don't sell their own tickets or even control prices they aren't in the category of LCC you describe. The actual independent LCC (as I mentioned) such as Southwest, JetBlue, Spirit, etc.... aren't considered "Regionals" anymore and generally pay their pilots more competitively. These LCCs don't currently have a pilot supply issue and are not having the difficulty attracting or retaining pilots such as "Regionals" do.
LCCs under the control of majors are the way the majors kept independent LCCs in check, somewhat. The majors have also had to become LCCs themselves to compete and match ticket prices: lower prices and fewer comforts. This is where profits and pilot shortage begin to connect. LCCs can't find enough pilots...they can't expand into markets where majors are raising prices...and price hikes hold. It has been happening for the past year, prices and profits are finally going up for the majors, because the LCCs are unable to expand into markets where prices are higher than their costs.
Again this isn't really happening at all.
I argue we are headed for a pilot shortage, not to blow lavender-scented smoke up your pants and claim we are all going to get rich. It is a warning. Good things are not coming from it.
A warning for who? I don't think the supply of pilots is going to change the progress of automation in the aerospace industry and an attempt to frighten pilots into being submissive for fear of being replaced by robots is silly.
Generally a labor shortage is always a good thing for anyone seeking work in that field. Not so good if you're hiring.