Originally Posted by
scottm
Lots to disagree about I guess. If we change "regional" to "affiliate" airline, this discussion would be easier, affiliate meaning contract airlines serving majors. All twelve affiliate airlines have a business strategy that emphasizes low-cost over comfort, convenience, network size, or any other common airline strategy for gaining market share. That makes all the affiliate airlines LCC by definition. Some also fly independent flights not for the majors, where they are understood to be LCC.
For the past decade, independent LCCs grew quickly wherever the market allowed daylight between price and cost. The majors had higher costs, so if they weren't losing money, the LCCs were able to take passengers, the majors were losing steadily. The majors couldn't cut enough costs (primarily labor) to compete, so they contracted with or grew their own LCC divisions. The majors generally didn't make money on their affiliate relationships, I've heard they mostly lost money but justified it. The strategy maintained their networks, which is still the biggest factor in selling airline tickets, even over price. People will still pay a little to stay on the same network, network size remains king.
The airline industry is powered by risk-taking egomaniacs who want to be in the airline business. There are always people trying to start up new airlines, or make their airline bigger, even when none are making money. This is why supply doesn't follow demand, and there is no capacity discipline. Cries from the financial sector for capacity discipline have always been ignored. Today the financial sector is fawning over the airline sector, for finally having capacity discipline. Does anyone really think airline executives suddenly found religion? Demand is growing slowly, and the majors can't meet it with affiliate flying or internal growth.
American and Delta can't move into Cleveland where United pulled their affiliate flying for lack of pilots. Frontier/Spirit/Southwest moved in quickly, but now have cut back as well. Small markets are losing service all over the country due to lack of pilots to serve them. The independent LCCs are in fact struggling to find pilots fast enough to replace those leaving. Major airlines say the regionals contain a pool of about 6,000 pilots they want, and that is drying up quickly.
If there are tens of thousands of qualified pilots waiting for things to turn, they are impressively patient or not very qualified.
I'm not trying to be rude but all of what you just wrote here is complete and total nonsense and even gibberish. it's not about disagreeing with you, its just utter nonsense. It's just made up and makes no sense.
You need to look at this as a resource shortage. When farmers run out of one source of calcium supplements for their fields, they turn to another source, or plant something that doesn't need calcium. Higher prices lead them to find other ways if they can, rather than double or triple their costs. Not just farmers, but all kinds of government and industry experts rush in to find alternatives to calcium supplements. To think ATP pilots will continue to be the only solution if they become scarce, is one-dimensional. There are a lot of other options on the table, and a lot of smart people looking at this as an opportunity. The automation option is growing quickly, will certainly become the preferred option eventually.
again...utter nonsense. you are literally arguing that pilots must go work for $20K per year to protect our profession from being replaced by robots. Ridiculous. If that's what this career has become then screw it I say. You can earn ten times the money in a different career and just buy your own plane if you love flying.
I have fourteen years left at a major, will retire a wide-body captain if I stick it out and nothing changes. If FOs are entirely replaced by MPLs or automation or an empty seat, I'll still be ok. But I'm not quitting my day job anytime soon.
how is that even possible? You just stated you were working for a company that develops automation and previously worked as a manager for a Fortune 500 company for 30 years! Now you are a pilot at a major and only 51 years old? Do the math!