4 years is the magic number now. It might go down a little but it will more likely start to trend upwards again as the 50 seaters go away, the other regionals win more of the flying and the overall regional flying gets wound down. There will be much west coast turmoil as new hires get forced out of their bases again as senior pilots transition into their spots. In 3 years or less, the landscape is going to be vastly different with many people wondering what the eff just happened.