Originally Posted by
Belizepilot
Honestly I think that any big change is 5 years away. I'd say before the industry dissolves they will try and raise the FO wage to a sub par level probably in the low 30's for first year. I say five years out because the mindset of the people coming thru the door then will be completely different. Younger generation will understand completely what the FO regional job entails and what it pays. Too many other careers with starting pay on par with the hard work/money that's required to obtain the job. Even a two year medical/therapy assiant degree from a community college starts out at $40k year. What you're seeing now is the first real signs of trouble ahead. There are still people coming thru the door, and that will slowly begin to dwindle overall each year. I'd say most regionals can keep afloat for a certain amount of time, but when things begin to peak and no supply thats when the big change will happen. You might even see a repeal/attempt of 1500hr rule, that's when you know sh#% about to hit the fan. Id like to say the regional industry would back that before increasing wages. Overall something will change, how long it takes and what exactly changes is my .02 cents.
They're already trying to repeal 1500 rule but there's too much at stake.
The only thing that will save the regionals is a major recession or if they restructure hiring without seniority. The problem isn't a pilot shortage, the problem is a shortage of low time pilots willing to work as interns. There are plenty of high time experienced pilots who would be willing to work at regionals at regional pay commensurate with their experience but have no interest in rolling the dice on seniority and work at dirt cheap wages again when they've already done it and already been captains.
Pilots need to stand up and realize the seniority system works against them, not for them.