Originally Posted by
PilotCrusader
At 1200-1500 total pilots as the goal for envoys low point in 2017, there would be 600-750 CA spots. With 300 of us "lifers" around, that is 300-450 open CA spots. The rest of the seniority list is flowing pretty steady, so longevity will shrink. For example, even with the deferrals returning, it is modestly estimated that all the 824 wil be gone before 2017. The protected pilots are 10 years or less currently, with a big gap in years 5 and 8(no one hired spring 2008-2010)
You also have about 100 of us lifers retiring in the next 4 years.
To carry that further. In theory, with 300 of 1500 not leaving; you have 1200 that will leave. With 300 a year flowing to AA the entire list would be cycled in 4 years.