They do hire guys without recs (15% according to the last update from the union hiring guy), but having a rec doesn't guarantee you anything. I'm sure many of us have stories of quality guys we've recommended that weren't called, or got stuck somewhere in the process, with no explanation. My limited dealings with HR/interviewing are that they're a hot mess, but I think they mean well. Supposed to be a ton of interviewing this month, so maybe your number will come up.