Carl,

Put on your magic imagination hat. You're RA.

You go to the annual shareholders meeting and give your presentation, complete with pie charts and graphs that show you are kicking the world's butt. One of those charts show PS expenditures for 2014. Another shows year over year increase in said expenditures since the inception of profit sharing. A major stock holder hits you in the Q&A following your presentation. He says he has put a significant fortune into Delta stock and expects a hefty dividend for his effort. Then he asks whether that 1.1 billion could be better utilized in the form of dividends for stockholders? You of course stress that is important to share the wealth with the employees and that it ultimately increases teamwork, etc,etc.

The BIG Holder then says, fine, whatever, but how much is it going to cost us next year.

"Well, er, um,..., sir, the cost is zero because I can't tell the future."

C'mon Carl. Quit embarrassing yourself.

RA is going to tell this guy what he expects to hear. PS is a cost of doing business. As such it is accounted for. He will quote his modeling that will establish a range of probability. From the range of probability a cost estimate will be derived and budgeted for.