This study finds there will not be a civilian system-wide pilot shortage in the near-term, though the system will become strained. Low-paying airlines will continue to have difficulties finding qualified pilots. All operators will experience fewer applicants for the available positions, potentially resulting in less qualified pilots system-wide. ...
Sounds about right. We know there is no real shortage of ATPs, just money to draw them back from Home Depot. There's actually an ATP excess in the US according to reliable data.