Originally Posted by
GoHomeLeg
I believe it will drop to 4 after the next bid. There are only a handful 2010 hires junior to the most junior 145 CA now. We will be into Jan 2011 hires after that. I expect it will stay at 3.5 to 4 years for the foreseeable future.
That's my prediction, assuming no fleet growth.
We have about 2300 pilots and lose about 30 guys per month on average. Most junior CA is about 1100 from the bottom. That's about 3 years to get to that number on the list. Now if you assume that 1 in 4 guys leaving is an FO, that number gets longer to about 4 years. And keep in mind this is with a stagnant fleet size. There are approximately 19 Q400s on their way out the door, which will be offset by 64 deliveries in the next two years (57 UAL and 7 DL). Plus it it reasonable to assume that attrition will pickup with majors hiring so many.
While it's just my personal opinion, assuming they can get new hires in the door (new TA?), upgrade times should drop to no more than 2-3 years in the future.
Full disclosure: I'm an 8-year FO that is struggling to hold the 170 for upgrade.....