Coming from a potential new hire at AWAC (interviewed two weeks ago and was offered an August class date) I see this announcement as better than bad news, but not great news. I am by no means an expert and am not currently in the industry, but here is my take on it:
I see four underlying issues in a well written statement from the CEO (the E-mail was sent to me as I am a "future employee"):
1. No new contract. AAG did not provide a new long term contract for AWAC, which means they could not reach an agreement. AWAC had to execute the extension to stay in business and/or prevent a concessionary contract in the short term.
2. The Message from the CEO states : "In late 2008, we negotiated an option agreement with Airways that provided Air Wisconsin the right to continue to operate our aircraft beyond December 31, 2015. However, the agreement also provided that any such additional flying would be at improved economic terms for Airways (now American Airlines) – meaning the revenue we would receive from American for flying aircraft beyond the end of this year would be less than we receive from them today." So - AWAC is taking a pay cut. This means AAG may have future leverage to keep the pay lower for a future contract.
3. No growth. Though the message states only a small number of airframes will be retired, I have been told by many pilots to seek a place that is growing, not stagnant or shrinking. No growth = longer upgrade times for new hires and guys low on the seniority list. I've heard it is currently 4-4.5 years. They quoted 2.5 years in the interview, but I have been told by several AWAC pilots that this doesn't sound right. I'll defer to the pilots on here about upward movement.
4. The message talks about finding a new operating cost structure dependent on the current lower fuel prices. So if fuel prices stay low, great. No problem... But we all know they are not going to stay as low as they are right now. They probably won't skyrocket again, but they will go up. What if AWAC can't squeeze any more efficiency out of the - 200's?
I see the extension as great news for current employees. They have a minimum of three more years of job security. But this could be a little dicey for potential new hires. Hopefully, they will find ways to secure new long term contracts in the future. But with upgrade times where they are now, and no growth on the horizon, in my mind it would be a tough choice to go to AWAC right now. I am considering it (I have offers at TSA and AWAC). The contract, pay, benefits and work rules are great. But these good things have a potential shelf life, and I likely wouldn't be upgraded by the time they expire in 2018. The potential exists that a new hire now may have to start over somewhere else if contract negotiations go south. Though it may be a slim chance, there is a chance.
My two cents.
Mike