Originally Posted by
Cujo665
The flow didn't start for non numbered 824's until December 2013. So, you're saying you're projected to flow in under 5 years from when the flow started, correct?
You tell me how flowing 300 a year to AA from a smaller envoy with 1500 total, and 1200 active, with 300 that won't flow doesn't equal a flow of street hire to AA in under 5 years? With an upgrade in there in the middle to boot. Like it or not, their plan will probably work exactly as they say it will. Their real problem is getting through the next 15-18 months while we are still shrinking.
Why it won't work as advertised starts with the ownership of Envoy, AAG. Not much different than the previous parent, AMR, perhaps even more ruthless.
Fact. Guys flowing now were hired in 1999. 16 years to get through. Recognizing the fact that 9/11 and the two recessions put the brakes on some of those guys moving, AMR
still metered the flow in the past when the staffing model showed the pilot corps to be above what they needed. Today, the 20 per month is contractual, supposed to go to 30 in September right? Do you trust AAG
not to meter or even stop the flow when they discover they need more guys?
Consider the discussions going on in the PSA thread. Apparently they are not well positioned for the airplanes they have now. Short Captains, they are having trouble getting the upgrades they need and are faced with many FO's without the required 121 mins to accept an upgrade. They have yet to take delivery of a single Envoy airframe. Maybe they will get their problems worked out but it will be interesting to watch.
AAG seems to be shooting itself in the foot in seemingly encouraging 700 guys to leave to get to the magic 1500. While many of these will be flow throughs, many more will be guys on the bottom of the list. With the well pretty much dry and with Envoy running 2 classes per month of no more than three to five guys, it is likely another disaster scenario. Sure, PSA is still getting large class numbers, but don't forget that many of these are ship jumpers from Envoy, Expressjet and Republic.
The regional tsunami as described on here by another poster has now sucked the tide far out to sea as it builds its massive momentum. Regional execs are still partying on the beach trying their best to rub elbows with their legacy counterparts. Party on guys, there will be no sympathy from me as the tsunami washes over you on the beach in the next year to two.
With these possible disaster scenarios mentioned above brewing, I can see AAG fully stopping the flow at some point. Hey, it's an emergency right? We've got 108 airplanes (or whatever the final number is at Envoy) to staff and "we ain't got nobody to fly em."
I myself was fortunate enough to be able to get hired elsewhere (a move up, not another regional) and move on from Envoy. It's not easy and I recognize that many others out there are trying just as hard and have yet to get the call. But it's a proven fact that at least 30 to 35 are moving on each month from that outfit in one fashion or another.
The flow is a nice backup plan I suppose, but I sure wasn't counting on it and did everything I could to leave the organization.
Hopefully you are right and the flow works as advertised, I just wouldn't count on it.