FedEx has a higher number of wide bodies as percentage than most airlines, and we have some 20 year AD guys who are WB captains. Most, however, were hired in the 96-98 boom. Most of our guys hired after 2000 cannot hold a WB, although I know a couple 01 hires who managed to get the MD11 for a spell. However, most were excessed back off it last year. There ARE a lot of NB captains however. The FDA in Hong Kong may have a few captains that made 20 on AD, but again...most of those were hired in mid 90s. Perhaps the surge at the legacies right now is large enough to offer similar opportunities for those late to the party, but I don't know for sure.
Packrat's point is interesting, and I realize most of the O-5/O-6s I met in the left seat of the -11 the last few years got there via an ANG/Reserves. They got out at the 7-12 year point and then continued.
All that aside, 20 years is a great life and choice for many. I bailed, and I was very happy with my decision, but my variables (family, location, job offer, and side business) worked well for me. I just finished my WB type rating last week and will be going to the line Jun-July after IOE. Hire to WB captain time was 13 years, six months. I would say that for guys hired at my company now that number might hold, but it won't drop much and might even get longer. That said, a NB captain spot after a full career and an AD retirement check isn't a bad life either, and I know many senior WB FOs and Junior NB captains who are in this niche.
Me--I knew myself, and knew I wanted to fly fighters, and big jets around the globe one day. I got very, very lucky and have done both. I have no regrets, but none of my retired bubbas complain much either...its all about where you feel most comfortable.