Originally Posted by
CGfalconHerc
The course is set..RJ providers will start to shut down, smallest to largest, in the near future. Raising RJ pay won't stem the tide, cause mainline will be flying large RJ's at mainline rates..and only the senior RJ lifers will hang on for QOL.
I think there might be a flaw in this reasoning. I hypothesize some of the non-wholly owned carriers will be the first to shutdown. Yes, of course we will see the Great Lakes and the likes shut down this year, but think about this for a moment-
American and Delta have the money to throw at their wholly owned carriers in the form of bonuses etc.. Pilots are seeing that at Endeavor now with their $20,000 per year retention bonus. However Skywest and Republic are two of the largest regional airlines. They will not have that luxury and as a result pilots will not work there because they have nothing to offer in the form of bonuses or flows etc.. or even quick upgrade. Republic is cancelling flights today for lack of crews to fly the airplanes and we are just getting started with this tight labor market. I know really nothing about skywest but I have to imagine the situation will be the same if it is not already.
With more airplanes available to fly then crews to fly them, pilots will not pick these carriers with nothing to offer. Current pilots at these airlines may be many of the first chosen in mass at the big 3 legacy airlines as there is not a flow or any kind of agreement that prevents the big 3 from draining them in their entirety, unlike wholly owned carriers whereby the mainline parent won't destroy their own feed and implement flows to slow the regional pilot exit.
Ultimately what you may see is Republic becoming competition running its own ticket selling operation or turning into an airplane and pilot leasing company. If Republic were to become a leasing company, now it is setting its own rates and charging the airline a more realistic fee as opposed to today's scenario under Fee For Departure.
On an unrelated note, one thing seems fairly clear to me though is that mainline pilots and their unions better get a handle on scope. Otherwise major airlines will be nothing more than ticket selling and marketing companies who contract out to other "contract carriers" to do all their flying whipsawing one carrier against the other.