Originally Posted by
ExperimentalAB
It'll go back up.
Why should it? SkyWest has failed to win any new awards in the RFP bidding. They have been beat by Pinnacle, Express Jet, Mesa, and even Comair. SkyWest has increased costs by transferring ASA's assets, both in the initial expense of the transfer and also in the ongoing operation of the aircraft.
ASA was the most profitable airline in the industry on the basis of their 12.9% margin. Even after SkyWest has taken and transferred ASA's new growth, undermined their productive employees on the property, lost 1,700 employees in one day, stripped management and pretty much ingnored what they have not taken, or fired. Further, the stagnation at ASA will increase unit costs as longevity increases. Why trash your own asset? It makes no sense unless you are driven by emotion and beating organized labor is worth the destruction of your own company in the process.
At some point a thinking person's respect for Jerry Atkin and the SkyWest management team is diminished by their lack of business objectivity. I'm beginning to wonder if Jerry Atkin is all that smart, or if he has lost his edge. He has made a teetotal mess of ASA and eventually the NMB is going to have to release those guys. When released, they could take out not only ASA, but SkyWest and really harm Delta. Why would Atkin purposely push these guys back in a corner and threaten them? They are likely to come out fighting.
So no, I am not bullish on SKYW and wish I did not own so much of the stock. The trend away from RJ flying will accelerate and while SkyWest will be a long term player, there will be blood on the floor as the dozens of no brand carriers fight with eachother for the ever diminishing RFP returns.