Originally Posted by
Broflyer
I'd vote a big fat NO on any merger. But, Mr. Franke probably won't ask for my 2 cents in a billion dollar plus deal like that. Here's some interesting math though:
Mergered today the "new" airline would have 128 airframes. Spirit's orders, plus Frontiers orders scheduled by the end of the decade would bring the fleet to 328, accord to numbers found on APC (I can only confirm F9's orders.)
Both airlines are operating around 13 hrs a day, which equates to 10-ish crews per plane. 328 airplanes = 6,560 pilots plus a 30% reserve staffing = 8,528 pilots to staff a combined airline by 2021. The total list right now would be 2,000 pilots.
Something doesn't add up with your numbers. Southwest has just under 700 airframes and just under 8000 pilots, and they are a benchmark of staffing efficiency. These numbers are also sufficient to satisfy almost 17% of the domestic US travel market. Do you really see Spirit/Frontier's niche ultimately growing to that size? I don't. There is a finite limit to the number of passengers who will put up with the dubious travel experience that ULCC's produce. You have not fully-satisfied the niche yet, but will at some point soon, IMO.