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Old 05-16-2015 | 02:26 PM
  #2599  
Aero1900
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 3,748
Likes: 98
From: 1900D CA
Default it's all about that stock price

Keep in mind that virtually all the decisions made by management are designed to raise the stock price and increase the profit margin.

Frontier will ipo well before any merger. Indigo might as well be called ipo. After the ipo they can watch what the stock price does and then evaluate a merger. If the stock price does well, there's no rush to merge. If the stock price disapoints, I bet they start talking merger. Pubic talk of mergers always drives up stock prices.

I still say we aren't going public this fall. It's too soon. I know I'm in the minority on that, but I really don't think we go public nearly that soon.

I predict that we do merge with spirit, but it's at least 5 years off. When/if it does happen it sure could create a big airline. I think that the order book of Buses is so big that all non NEO airplanes will go away. Both airlines have very aggressive growth plans and I highly doubt that all that combined growth could happen. The US market simply can't support a 700 airplane SWA and a 350 airplane "Spirit of Frontier" in addition to the legacies.

Perhaps the combined airlines growth would sputter out at 200ish airframes?? I don't think the ULCC model will be able to grow as big as it has in Europe with Southwest here. I think the ULCCs in Europe have grown to 30% of the market. I don't think we'll have that here so long as Southwest continues to do well.

From the pilots perspective, I think a merger is a good thing. I think we are stronger together than apart. Hopefully both airlines can sign new, better contracts before any merger so that we can continue to aim higher. I sincerely wish spirit pilots the best in their contract negotiations. Raise the bar!
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