Originally Posted by
Smokey23
Something doesn't add up with your numbers. Southwest has just under 700 airframes and just under 8000 pilots, and they are a benchmark of staffing efficiency. These numbers are also sufficient to satisfy almost 17% of the domestic US travel market. Do you really see Spirit/Frontier's niche ultimately growing to that size? I don't. There is a finite limit to the number of passengers who will put up with the dubious travel experience that ULCC's produce. You have not fully-satisfied the niche yet, but will at some point soon, IMO.
The glut of ULCC passengers is finite, yes, but so are the stars in the heavens. The surface of this market has barely been scratched. I know it's borderline cliche at this point, but are we to believe the much larger and more mature ULCC market in Europe is just an anomaly? I doubt it. Yes, NK & F9 will grow to that size and larger because the demand will certainly drive it. You don't believe me? One word: Walmart!
Is the travel experience dubious? (I'm assuming by using that term you mean unreliable) ...Perhaps right now maybe a little. But once this model grows out of it's infancy it will be affordable AND reliable, despite being somewhat unpleasant. Kind of like a city bus; no fun for sure, but it does the trick and nothing beats the price. If your station in life won't permit other modes of transport, you're on that sucker!