Originally Posted by
pilotrod
If you think there is a shortage of civilian trained pilots now, just wait a few years. The airlines are going to have to start their own training programs if they want a steady supply of pilots in the future. I predict there won't even be enough 200 hour private pilots if they ever lowered the minimums that low.
Add to that the fact that eventually people will find out that the career pays poorly, has unstable schedules and domiciles, poorly managed carriers and operations and you will have a recipe for a real staffing disaster at the lesser carriers in a few years.
It is already happening at some places like Mesa. The shortage will manifest itself at the bottom first and work its way up.
Three years ago I would talk to people who were telling me that there was a 10-year furlough list at places like AA, United, US Airways, etc. Nowadays they are either completely through those lists or getting about a 20% return rate. They will bleed the regionals dry when they start hiring. The regionals will have a harder time than finding even low-time pilots.
Then, and only then, will the laws of supply and demand come into effect and there may be some bargaining power on the part of the pilots.