Originally Posted by
RyanP
Where did you get those numbers? I just went to do the math myself and I got these off the latest 5/15 ALPA seniority list, about 183 numbers more than you have. I understand we may have used a different # for 99 for selection classes, but the rest after that should match up..
1999- 217 (remaining after the latest transferred class)
2000- 165
2001- 88
2002- 0
2003- 0
2004- 120
2005- 65
2006- 117
I'm thinking around 24 months to get through 2006.. give or take a bit "if" everything goes perfect and assuming a small # of outside attrition each month as well. No way it will hit 18 months unless we have huge CA attrition to other places. Plus we don't actually hit 30/month until about November, (still at 20/mo for now and we have a month of no flow this summer). Also there will be a period of time after the 824 where we just get 25/month until we hit our 40th delivery of the E175 sometime in 2017, then it goes back to 30/mo so we lose a little there also.
When you do the math did you count the numbers that skipped? Not too many, but they do add up.
In that group 25 is the min not the max. It's 50% of the class which may be witheld to 25 if we are tight staffed. The current flow is going at well above the 50%. We would be sending much less if we only did 50%. Instead they stopped street hires to send more of our flows. Instead of sending 10, we sent 25. It is actually working better than they had too.
Originally Posted by
RyanP
Still unknown variables are outside CA attrition to UAL/Delta etc when it really picks up next couple years. Plus there is still maybe 5-8% of the list that will probably bypass and stay here for whatever reason. age etc. Then I can almost guarantee you there will be some of those idiots that should have flowed before the 824 award change their mind "again" and go in the protected pilots diluting that a few more numbers.
I wish it would be 18 months but the numbers just don't work unless something big changes in our attrition.
Lots of variables. A few things are certain. It is working better than forecast. It should create 250-360 flows each year, and if we do keep those planes longer, it quickly means that many upgrades each year also. That movement would not be dependant on growth like others are.