Originally Posted by
tom11011
I'm not really sure you are being at all honest here with your representation. How many FO's have upgraded this year? What is the longevity of the most junior pilot to flow to AA this year?
To the person who originally asked the question, I do not think you are being given a honest answer with this cujo's post.
Let's see if he is willing to provide a response to the two questions.
We've gained 15 from this most recent bid.... and that was while SHRINKING, which may be stopping very shortly.
The most junior pilot to flow to AA recently was a 1999 date of hire who waited 5 years from when the flow started back up in 2010. Nobody is disputing the lost decade Tom. No legacy or mainlines were hiring. You can't flow when nobody is hiring. This hiring cycle is totally driven by retirements. Unless they find the fountain of youth, the retirements WILL happen and replacements will be needed. 50% of every new hire slot at AA will come from Envoy. Nobody else has that, and it has been working exactly as planned since 2010 when the first batch of 35 went over.
However, lets do it your way and play devils advocate and be a doom and gloomer. Assume we shrink to 1500 pilots, with 200 on leave and 300 not flowing. That's 1000 pilots who would flow. Our flow
IS 270-360 a year. That is a less than 4 year flow from the street to AA. You'd have to add another 12-18 months while we continued to shrink, with an end result of a new hire still going from the street to AA in under 6 years.
So, it really doesn't matter at this point. We've hit critical mass where shrinking more, or stopping now doesn't effect time to flow very much.
Facts are facts. 50% of every new hire slot at AA will come from Envoy. It's why we still reject 75% of the candidates we interview. We are interviewing for AA. Yes, we only hire about 5-20 a month and reject the rest. We are the entry level job for American Airlines, and we are proud that we are selective of who wears our uniform. The rest can go work for Mesa, TSA and others and maybe get an interview for an AA job. Our guys already have interviewed and been hired.
like it or not, their plan will likely work exactly as they've said. Beyond that, from what I
AM hearing the transfers of the 700's to PSA will be much fewer transferring initially, and the rest won't go over for an extended period of time well beyond the prior planned dates. I'm also hearing PSA will be parking some airplanes soon. You may expect some news of all that soon. This would mean exactly what I've said; That shrinking stops; upgrades start back up at a rate to at least meet flow related attrition of 270-360 flows/upgrades per year. That's a street to AA time of just under 6 years.