Originally Posted by Cujo665

Sorry to burst your bubble Tom, but we've gained 15 from this most recent bid.... and we had a another dozen or so finishing upgrade recently from prior bids.... and that was while SHRINKING, which may be stopping very shortly. If it does, a new hire may expect exactly what I described.

However, lets play devils advocate and be a doom and gloomer. Assume we shrink to 1500 pilots, with 200 on leave and 300 not flowing. That's 1100 pilots who would flow. Our flow IS 270-360 a year. That is a 4 year flow from the street to AA. You'd have to add another 12-18 months while we continued to shrink, with an end result of a new hire going from the street to AA in under 6 years.

So, it really doesn't matter at this point. We've hit critical mass where shrinking more, or stopping now doesn't effect time to flow very much.

Facts are facts. 50% of every new hire slot at AA will come from Envoy. It's why we still reject 75% of the candidates we interview. Yes, we only hire about 10-15 a month. The rest can go work for Mesa and others and maybe interview for an AA job. Our guys already have interviewed and been hired.

like it or not, their plan will likely work exactly as they'd said. Beyond that, from what I AM hearing as recently as this morning is the transfers of the 700's to PSA will be much fewer transferring initially, and the rest won't go over for an extended period of time well beyond the prior dates. You can expect confirmation of that soon. This would mean exactly what I've said. That shrinking stops; upgrades start back up at a rate to at least meat flow related attrition of 270-360 flows/upgrades per year. That's a street to AA time of just under 6 years.