How set are you on non-commuting from PHX? (are you not willing to commute from PHX to work at UAL/DAL for example if you are not then you're looking at AA as your only future major airline destination.) you said you were willing to commute short term to get current, but wanted to live in domicile PHX long term - so also for UAL/DAL?
How set are you with working for AA to get PHX?
How much longer are you looking at for an airline career? mid-40's, mid-30's, mid-50's?

I think you'd be competitive for JetBlue/Virgin/Southwest/Frontier/Spirit/Allegiant with 4000 FW once you get current with any regional (and get a degree).... Have you written off these carriers and only the big 3 is your goal?

So if staying with AA to get PHX, in the future 50% of AA newhires will be coming from Envoy. Problem is that going to any of the AAG regional means that your only way to get into AA is through their flow programs. The likelihood of circumventing the flow through program and trying to get hired off the street is not very likely (though it has been done.)

With a non-AAG regional, like Mesa, Republic, Skywest, Endeavor, Compass, Transstates, you'll be able to apply to AA like every other normal person would and just wait to see if you get picked up for an interview.

Depending on your age, you might have a lot of time to keep starting over - get current at a regional, move to a LCC, then try your shot at AA. If you go to UAL or DAL, will you'll be commuting from PHX for the rest of your career.

As far as CA recommendations for upgrade, Mesa has always required 2 CA letter of recommendations in order to bid for upgrade, it's to prevent those who really aren't captain material from upgrading (i.e do you have common sense.) If you're a normal person, it's pretty easy to get. I only know of 1 person who works/worked at Mesa who couldn't get a CA recommendation letter.