Originally Posted by sulkair

I threw this up here a few days ago and then pulled it back down because I felt like I ought to get permission from the guy who wrote it first.

But he's taking too long to answer, and it's too good not to share.

So... Here it is... I don't think he would mind.

This is a PM I received from a Spirit CA, one of many people I sought advice from when I was considering coming to Frontier. Revisiting his PM some 15 months later, I find it uncanny how accurate his predictions were.


March 2, 2014

How'd the interview go?

I assume you've interviewed by now. If not, well, you asked me my thoughts on Frontier, so, here they are:

- lots of upside, Indigo will probably try to use the same model they did with Spirit, reduce costs, go ULCC, grow the company to profitability, then cash out. Getting on now, before Frontier is the 'trendy' place to apply, could lead to the left seat of the Airbus and good seniority for the rest of your career.
- near term down-side, Bill Franke makes JO look like a cream puff. He made Spirit strike to get a contract that is, frankly, not that impressive. He's going to bend the Frontier pilots over a barrel - they are so excited to be out from under the Republic/Bedford insanity (merging a regional with an Airbus operator and giving the senior regional guys seniority over the FO's - that was crazy - all the FO's were already regional Captain guys, Frontier is the 'next step', possibly a career airline), they don't seem to understand that Franke and Indigo are going to save the company by making their lives miserable, or at least that's what Franke did to America West and Spirit. Frontier's pilot group has no idea who they're dealing with - but it'll still be better than Mesa!
- Frontier will have to differentiate themselves from the competition. United owns Denver, and Southwest went from not operating in Denver to bigger than Frontier in Denver in just 2 years. Denver is an expensive airport to operate out of, so it will be difficult for Frontier to keep their current 'Denver hub' strategy, since they're going up against one of the most successful and consistently profitable airlines ever (Southwest) and the largest airline in the world, with deep pockets (United). Meantime, Spirit has already established themselves as 'the ULCC' of the US. I see Frontier moving away from being so 'Denver-centric', doing more east coast flying, and sharing the ULCC market with Spirit. Just like there's room for both easyJet and Ryan Air in Europe, there should be room for 2 ULCC in the US too. Indigo has learned how to make ULCC's work, and may now create the 'perfect ULCC', since they're on their 3rd go-around. 3rd times a charm, right? Or maybe Frontier merges with jetBlue, Spirit, or someone else. Who knows?
- As US Airways merges with American, PHX and PHL will likely lose service to LAX and JFK (respectively). I see a vacuum to fill in those cities, and Frontier could be the one to grab some of each of those markets if Indigo can move quickly. I'm sure you'd like a PHX base, and it would go junior, since most Frontier guys live in DEN now.

Overall, I see it as a good opportunity for a regional guy. You'll likely never be the highest paid Airbus guy in the US, but you will almost certainly have a better future than hitching your wagon to Mesa. Regional jets are a dying business model, and its insane that you have over a decade of time at a regional and can hardly hold the left seat. That is horrible career progression - and, if you don't go to Frontier, I hope you use it as motivation to leave to somewhere else. I still think you could get some pull at AA. Even if Frontier tanks, your experience in an Airbus will instantly make you more qualified for other 'career' jobs than your current resume, as well as qualify you for ex-pat work like Emirates or contract work on Airbus equipment in Asia - if that's something you'd consider. An Airbus type is worth $10K plus by itself.

Good luck to you, at Frontier, AA, or even at Mesa.