Originally Posted by
eaglefly
Rough ? I think that's simply based on myopic expectations. The expectations now of many new-hires (and even those hired as far back as the mid-late 1990's) is to be an airline jet captain within 2-3 years (70-seat state of the art fanjet) out of college, at a major before they are 30 and long-haul International captains by 45. Compare that to the 1980's when to get a slot in a Beech 99 or metroliner it took 2500 hours with 500 multi and you threw bags and if you weren't on with a major (relatively few slots) by your early to mid 30's, you were too old.
I'm sorry, but when you say a pilot in his mid-20's with 2 years in the airline industry as a regional F/O "gets it" (like he has both his company and the industry figured out cold), I just have to shake my head and wince.
I hope you're right, but so far I can't find where you're getting this supposedly certain information to base your position on. I talk to current Envoy guys all the time and I haven't met a single one within MANY months that had anything positive to say. AAG and Envoy have made no bombshell announcements and haven't run a large upgrade bid or announced massive hiring from what I've heard. Are you sure about this or is this simply hope based on the power of positive thinking ?
Doesn't the FIRST 175 not even go operational until early next year and a year from now only a relative handful will be on line ? Regardless of the entry of the 175, virtually all new-hires now would be slated for a banged-up, tired E-145, so even using the 175 as something to look forward to really isn't applicable to those who are starting out now at Envoy or would be in the near future.
Hey, I applaud you positive attitude, I just hope you're not setting yourself up for a crushing disappointment in the future.
You have taken basically everything I said out of context.
When I said he "gets it" I was referring to the fact that our reserve time "now" means nothing for a new hire today. With the flow taking our senior guys, those times will come down.
As far as your history lesson of 1980s "paying your dues" and all, I agree. Every generation has it different. I don't know who the guy I quoted is... Maybe he is in his 20s with two years experience. That is not true for every regional pilot, though.
As for your attack on my "supposedly certain" info, it's just numbers. I have no inside info. I'm just looking at our attrition off the top and running the numbers. Simple. Upgrade will come down, flow will come down. In 18 months we'll be flowing 2006 hires. A year after that, 2010.. And so on.