Another thing to consider is if they continue the flow as planned or better than planned. Moves to LCCs make even less sense.

At this point any captain with PIC is making the same amount as a LCC 1/2 yr FO and they will flow in under 2 years. The only move that makes sense is another major.

FOs have a bit tougher decision, and the jump to an LCC is far from an obvious move. Go to an LCC as an FO and that very well be a career long move (without PIC) it's not a shortcut anywhere besides better pay and QOL immediately, especially with Envoy bases closing this move might make sense for some guys faced with the prospect of commuting.

Overall if the company acts on its plan of 2.5 year upgrade and 6 year flow, meaning that they hit all required numbers flow/upgrades/hiring the pilot group will begin to trust the numbers and I would venture no one would leave for an LCC when everyone is awaiting either imminent upgrade or flow.

It's time for management to put up or shut up, we obviously don't trust their word, but if we start seeing the flow/upgrades/hiring guys will stay.