Just spitballing some numbers on what the LCA concession costs us. Lots of assumptions here, so feel free to slash. I figured 35hrs OE for newhires, 25 for transition (not sure if that is correct), and 900 hrs/yr of trips for the average FO.

First, new-hire OEs. Assuming 1k new hires per year, that’s 35k hrs of OE trips per year. 75% of them no longer open to bid = 26,250 fewer F/O hours needed = 30 fewer F/Os.

Next, transition OEs. Assuming 6 AEs/yr, 2,500 OE hrs per AE = 13 fewer F/Os

Next, impact of 2yr seat lock on new hires. Assuming 10% of new hires want to move up at year 1 due to year 2 payrate differences or other reasons. No longer possible… another 21 F/O jobs gone.

Somewhere around 60 fewer F/Os needed. A 6% cut in hiring. Not bad negotiations for the company, and an easy sell to people who think it won’t affect them… until they get pushed down a few numbers when a good chunk of the senior pilots in each F/O category bid over to Capt.

Add in the job losses due to the other concessions, and I’ll be bold enough to say that’s not a candy bar floating in our punch bowl.