Originally Posted by
JohnBurke
Aircraft manufacturers? They're not hiring pilots. Think.
Have you worked in Asia? I have.
Asia is expanding, not experiencing a pilot shortage. There are plenty of Chinese graudates, for example, to fill seats. Most of them are worthless. I know. I've dealt with enough of them. The Chinese philosophy for study involves cheating, cheat sheets, waiting until the last moment to study, and generally very poor performance. Overall, throughout Asia, expat pilots are hired not because there aren't numbers of asians to fill the seats, but the quality and performance of western pilots far exceeds what the Chinese, Koreans, and others are able or willing to put out. The Chinese sign massive quantities of students to 99 year contracts, regardless of whether they're used as pilots, and as a result have a massive army of indentured servants, most of whom failed out of their pilot positions despite every effort to accept the lowest common denominator.
There's no pilot shortage in Asia. There's a shortage of Asians who make the grade. There's still no pilot shortage.
There are no shortages in the major airlines. There are thousands of applicants for every position that opens up.
The regionals are the poor employers. They pay squat, and qualified, experienced pilots don't choose to go there, except in times of furlough. They're entry level jobs. There are plenty of pilots who could fill those seats. The numbers willing to do so for that price point, not so much. That does not equate to a pilot shortage.
Firstly I'll comment that today, June 11th, 2015 there is no pilot "shortage" per say in US domestic air service. However, I think it is trending in that direction rapidly.
Here's what one needs to ask themselves:
- What would the first indicator be that we were actually in a pilot shortage? The bottom feeder operators not being able to fill classes is the big one that comes to my mind.
- How many ATP holders are currently sitting out the industry in a non-flying or even non-aviation job? I'm not sure the numbers there are that substantial. And out of those former pilots how many are willing to walk away from, in many cases, far more lucrative positions that gets them home every night with their families? I'd venture to guess not many.
- Is there a large enough "reserve" pilot force in the expats that can make up for the lack of qualified and or willing ATP applicants stateside? Frankly I don't think anyone has even remotely accurate numbers to really assess this thus this factor is the great unknown. But I have to ask myself how many of those expats really like what they do abroad and like their payscales. It's wise to understand that many of those guys and gals enjoy living and working in a foreign country and have even moved their families there. So coming home to take what would likely be a fairly significant pay cut to work at a legacy carrier or top tier fractional or even a hihgly coveted part 91 gig isn't really a given at all.Certainly many will and are coming home to domestic jobs but just like the pool of leftover CFI's and piston box flyers that only have enough experience to work for a regional that pool is finite.
It all comes down to one factor - are there enough ATP holding pilot's currently employable and hireable by the legacy's to make up for the massive amount of retirements to happen over the next decade? Because let's be frank, its the legacy vacuum ramping up that's driving this whole discussion.
There are a lot of factors at play here that don't get talked about a lot.
For instance the numbers of legacy retirements is somewhere around 20,000 by 2025. Those numbers aren't considering retirements from the regional carriers or the fractionals. Now the fractionals are the big unknown because there is no mandatory retirement age, however a lot of those guys are as old as granite and are going to be voluntarily retiring soon.
We also must consider the numbers of flight students currently in the training pipeline. No secret there - its dismal. The big flight schools are hopping but they are hopping with foreign students getting cheap training that won't work here when they finish up. The number of Americans training for a professional pilot career is so low currently its almost non-existent. That brings the dependency on job vacancies back to non flying ATP holders and expats.
So is there a pilot shortage today? No
Will there be one tomorrow? To say there be won't is obtuse and to say there will be is just a guess. Remember, it all comes crashing down if the economy tanks or we see another 911 styled terror attack on western interests. Both events a matter of when not if.
My conclusion is that the jury is still out.