Originally Posted by Carl Spackler

I know this won't go over well, but no matter what facts you think you have, the odds of your prediction of the market's direction is exactly 50/50. I don't care who you are, it's 50/50.

There's the famous story of the guy who shorted collateralized debt obligations in 2007 because he was sure the housing market would collapse. He was right and made 2 billion. He then shorted bonds because he was sure rates couldn't go lower since they were near zero. He was wrong and lost 2.1 billion.

Even though you may be right, the market can be irrational longer than you can keep funding your short position. In all things, moderation.

Carl