Originally Posted by
lineplug
Professor:
I don't think I will be able to make any of the road shows so could you please help me out.
Did the NC look at any numbers for how the LCA change will impact the F/Os? I have seen a lot of numbers thrown around but I'm really interested to know how many less line holders and how many less F/O jobs we're talking about. Surely the NC had to have some hard data before signing off on that. It has to affect more than just those directly getting LCA trips.
Lineplug,
While I would like to give you a definitive answer, no one knows exactly.
Either DALPA didn't do the mock bid runs or they did and don't want to release them. This leaves us with trying to construct a model.
We do know the following: There are around 700 LCA. Some types of training require a lot of hours, new hire, and some types don't require much, line check. We are in a hiring phase and retirements are just starting to kick into higher gear. That means more LCA activity.
With PBS, any FO can bid onto a LCA's line if they have enough seniority. Under the TA, only 25% of the awarded CA trips will be available for FO's to bid. The remaining 75% of trips that have been awarded to LCA's will disappear from the biddable trips. How many? We don't really know. Whoever has done a definitive audit isn't talking. And, this number will change according to time of year, training cycles and hiring patterns.
If you are the type of guy looking for the exact numbers. They are not to be had. I don't think you need the exact numbers to predict the behavior and effects. LCA trips will still go to senior FO's. 75% of the trips will be withheld from the biddable trips. There will be no way of knowing until you get a reasons report.
This effect will start a cascade. Really senior guys won't suffer at all. Nor will they change their bidding behavior. Upper middle senior guys will no longer get the good deal. They will receive trips that a more junior guy will have gotten. So on and so forth until the last group in the category can't hold a line and will be involuntarily thrown on reserve.
Repeat this in EVERY category in EVERY base EVERY month.
Some of the senior guys will give up and upgrade. This may in turn displace a very junior captain.
I'm a captain. It won't effect me in the least. If you are an FO, it will effect in significant ways. We just can't quantify those numbers. I'm sorry I couldn't be more helpful. The one thing that we do know is it's concessionary.