Originally Posted by
Timbo
Think about where all the 747 F/O's are going to displace to.
If this thing goes through, instead of them displacing to say, senior 777 F/O or senior A330 F/O, they will probably say, "Well, that whole LCA trip drop thing was great while it lasted, but it sucks so bad now, I'm going to displace into the 767ER Captain seat.".
Presto, the junior 767 Captains are displaced to the 737, and those junior Captains displace to the 88, and those junior Captains have a party because they HATE flying the MD88!
You guys are playing checkers, Richard is playing chess. You all need to look about 2-3 years (at least!) down the road to see the same thing Richard is seeing and setting the table for today.
You are correct about displacing 744 FO's however I doubt there is a whole lot of 744 OE training going on and LCA bidding. This is mostly a narrow body/7ER FO issue. Most 744 FO's could already hold Capt on something or have been previously. Yes, some will again decide to fly narrow body Capt and displace, but awards of senior narrow body FO's to Capt will not, which was Carl's assertion. Biggest drag of the 744 retirement will be many positions will be filled from above rather than below. Now add in the CVG base closure and we will have stagnation for the bottom half of the list for a while.....