Originally Posted by
LeadFoot
That's another thing that I'm trying to understand. The non-wholly owned airlines combined do more flying for American Airlines than PSA, Piedmont, and Envoy. With the projections of retirements through 2025, AAG would not just have to hire from the three WO's. Am I right in saying that they may have to hire from elsewhere as well? And not everyone from the regionals wants to go to AAG; in fact many would go to United, Delta, UPS, FedEx, JB, etc...
Well, that all depends on AA future hiring. Personally, I don't think AAG will ever commit to closing itself out of the ability to hire outside pilots as doing so would just limit them should unforeseen circumstances make that a more attractive option. Parker's a lot of things, but I don't think he's THAT stupid. Limiting your flexibility is just bad business. Some make claims about AA hiring X pilots based on retirement numbers, but staffing models, capacity alterations and outside economic and/or political factors can all combine in various forms to lead to a dramatic reduction or even cessation of hiring at AA for any number of time periods. They have in the past and it's prudent to assume they will at some point to some degree in the future. To assume otherwise is akin to just putting enough fuel in your fuel tank to barely reach your destination, but no further.
Another aspect to consider is what those who are NOT AA wholly-owned regionals do and that's cover market share for AA that the wholly-owneds cannot. If they disappear, who flies that feed ? Someone has to and the fact is, that the WO's don't now and won't in the future have those pilots. I think it's obvious all that is occurring now is the next phase of the contraction of the regionals and that's "consolidation". First, they will continue to kick the can by trying to do more with less and shuffling their critical commodity (pilots) around a bit. Once that tack is exhausted, the next phase means carrier consolidation, but ultimately the regional industry will shrink to perhaps half its former size, but with a majority of 64-76 aircraft. If and when that becomes threatened, then actual consolidation within the mainline carrier itself is likely the final solution with the entry level position a Group 1 type job at the mainline flying the smaller jets.
Ultimately, most present regional pilots will find themselves at a particular legacy through various phases of consolidation and then acquisition. Running after the first carrot in the process in the long-run like the Envoy/Piedmont flows is a pre-mature knee-jerk reaction at this juncture. I think as the next 18 months goes on, a better picture will emerge and chasing quick upgrades or projected flows now is unadvisable, but hey........that's simply my opinion.