Originally Posted by
FirstClass
My advice to you is to listen to eaglefly's very rational advice. To me, the puzzle is so simple, they are not going to destroy their own feed by draining their own wholly owned airlines of all their pilots. The flow works in AA's best interest right now because they need to shrink Envoy to 45 airplanes (today's number which can change). Once they are shrunk to whatever size they deem appropriate, thats the end of the flow.
You're the CEO of an airline in need of pilots over the next decade. Which regional airlines are you going to attempt to drain of their pilots? Yours or someone elses?
I don't necessarily think the concept of "flow-throughs" will disappear once Envoy shrinks to X and then is consolidated with whomever. But flow-throughs will only work for a relatively short period as they alone are not enough to jumpstart the industry with available pilots by making this profession attractive. Since it was used as a charade in the past, many are too skeptical that history isn't repeating itself. It's simply not enough to get most present pilots to shoot craps and start all over again at the back of the line at a shrinking carrier no less. The fact is that regional airlines are considered "slumming" as their reputation is extremely poor. It will take a few years, but ultimately, the 64-76-seat regional ops will have to go to mainline, although it will likely be under their cheapest scale/work rules like AA's "Group I" provisions. Now, I think Envoy in particular is in a bad position in the near future because of its poor reputation, the fact it still has a critical aspect of uncompetitive costs due to pilot longevity and the fact it is slated to shrink significantly. Add to that the fact AAG has not made any additional significant commitments to it and the likelihood of not getting in enough pilots through the door to run not only a smooth flow, but THE flow to AA as some here are claiming, puts it among the riskiest carriers.
If I were an entry-level prospective pilot, I'd make my choice of a regional as one based more on tangible factors then hypothetical ones and if I were already at a given regional (at least one that flies RJ's for a legacy), I'd stay put and let the industry evolve more to get a better handle of what is a good next move, if any.