eaglefly

How many "large RJ" options are out there for Envoy to poach ? You allude to resources for Envoy to poach that I really think don't exist to any significant degree. Let's look at the present playing field, shall we ?

- Envoy (wholly-owned) : Shrinking significantly and to an unconfirmed level. 47 CRJ's still being transferred to PSA Airlines. Can only take an additional 6-20 options above their modest 40 aircraft E-175 commitment. Rest of fleet is obsolete and with limited lifespan, but while fuel is cheap, still usable. Once that changes and should staffing continue to fall as scheduled to unknown goals, look for these aircraft to be systematically parked. Several hundred senior captains that are also financially obsolete.

- ExpressJet : 344 jets, but only 30 of which fly for AA/U. Perhaps 275 pilots committed to AA/U ops which is likely to be phased out over time due to their strong relationship feeding competitors. Normal attrition will cover this situation and this carrier is likely to eventually end its relationship with AA in the future.

- Mesa Airlines : Strong relationship with UAL, so future unknown with AA. Only 9 options for AA flying and operates CRJ-900's which are valuable aircraft and won't be transferred to Envoy as Envoy is slated to exit the CRJ flying business, which is shrinking and whose attrition is far outpacing its recruitment.

- Republic Airlines : Retiring UAL's Q400's so that will temporarily ease staffing concerns there as attrition covers that. Almost all aircraft on order have been delivered, so no option ability to give to Envoy. Good candidate for consolidation with Envoy, which would dilute flow for junior Envoy pilots and future new-hires so as to provide equal opportunity to all of combined carriers pilots, should that occur. Could theoretically gradually transfer the Eagle E-175's to Envoy, but those would just be replacement aircraft for Envoy which wouldn't assist any flow-through engine all that much.

- SkyWest : 335 aircraft for Delta/United and only 30 for AA/U. Likely to also end relationship with AA due to STRONG relationships feeding AA competitors.

- TSA (Trans States) : only 15 aircraft for AA (11 actually from Envoy, but also obsolete E-145's with limited futures). 4 months worth of Envoy pilot attrition is all that staffs this carrier for AA. I don't foresee a long-term relationship with AA here and pilot attrition to non-regionals will provide little relief to Envoy to support any long-term flow engine. Aircraft are all obsolete 50-seaters as well with limited lifespans and no order/options commitments from AAG to fail to staff.

- Piedmont (wholly-owned) : Mostly turboprop routes, but getting some obsolete 50-seaters from.......you guessed it, Envoy. Fairly small carrier whose main question is the future of their majority turboprop route structure which likely can only be financially supportable by new turboprops. No "large RJ" options to give to Envoy.

- PSA (wholly-owned) : Still getting Envoy's 47 CRJ-700 transferred there. 35 obsolete CRJ-200 likely to be phased out as staffing becomes an issue and the larger CRJ's arrive from Envoy, very much like Envoy and their E-145's, but likely faster. 24 CRJ-900's already there and looks to become a solid CRJ-700/900 operator for AA.

- Air Wisconsin : 71 obsolete CRJ-200's. This carrier is the one most likely to be phased out or consolidated. A good bet it may be acquired by PSA, which will help staffing there and not Envoy. Easy training logistics for their present pilot cadre, should that occur.

All these AA regionals will be streamlined and the thought that Envoy will be the recipient of most of their pilots (which is what would be needed to support the aggressive AA flow you are selling...for FREE, BTW) is very unlikely as this will all take time, perhaps another 2-3 years to shake out. Legacy and LCC attrition at these carriers will siphon that hoped for pilot stream to inconsequential levels for Envoy.

I don't see many "options" to exercise and even those that do exist, will not likely have the pilots ANYWHERE to staff them. THAT is why I believe AA's regional network will shrink by up to half, just with virtually all larger RJ's in the 64-76 seat range.

You're shrinking because pilots are leaving not just to AA which is REQUIRED of AAG/Envoy by arbitration award, but also by outside attrition which is far exceeding recruitment AND the fact AA has hired from the street. The new projection from your own union indicates only 15 pilots per month will flow to AA next year on average out of 2000 pilots. That's not much of a flow-through vehicle attraction for new-hires.

1/3 of that 62% were Letter 3 pilots also required to flow due to arbitration award and MORE IMPORTANTLY, occurred at a time when AA HAD NOT BEGUN hiring off the street. Since then, your "incredibly shrinking" airline has simply met the arbitrational requirement to transfer X number of pilots, that's all. Next year, only 175 pilots (all STILL among the arbitrationally required "824" of which perhaps 450 or so are left) will flow. At that rate, it will take almost another 2 years just to get THOSE pilots to AA (if everything runs smoothly). The PPA pilots are a totally different animal and by early 2017, it's just as likely Envoy will be consolidated with other carrier(s) completely rearranging any flow projections for present non-824 pilots there or anyone who signs on in the interim.

BTW, I was reading an article in ATW-plus dated 5/21/15. Although the title was, "American Airlines to Integrate Regional Carriers", it stated a quote from Hashimoto that AAG "is NOT interested in the next generation of regional jets, at least for now". Interpret that as you wish, but I don't think that bodes well for AAG exercising ANY options on large RJ's in the future, at least not until they are confident they can find pilots from ANYWHERE to fly them for a stable period of time. Thus, all your poaching claims don't hold water in my opinion and seem more born of hope, then fact.


*Note to forum; Since Cujo has fled, this will be directed to those here interested in considering all points-of-view whether agreed to or not.