Originally Posted by
Speed Breaker
I must be missing something. Look at all the emails and even bigger proof...., the mock bid. DEN is shrinking. No position fills for FO slots when an FO leaves or upgrades. (Only one FO was able to get back into DEN in that bid that I saw.) Not trying to be a Debbie downer, but look at the numbers. Honestly, I see DEN shrinking. I personally will be shocked to see too many FOs getting into DEN anytime soon. We will see though I guess... Like I said, I may be missing something. The next bid comes out soon. We will see....
If you look at the Mock Bid - it is clear KDEN will absolutely be available to new hires.
I count 91 current FOs leaving Denver whether to upgrade out or just transfer out as FO, and 2 coming in. Net loss of 89.
The mock bid 'totals page' only shows a net reduction of 46 FO's for Denver by end of year.
This necessitates a backfill of 43 newhire FO's ...89 - 46 = 43 newhires will come into Denver as backfill between now and end of 2015
Granted it's a Mock bid. But assuming it's even only 50% correct, that still requires newhire back fill into Denver which will continue until every FO that has any inclination to upgrade has already done so out of Denver and the only ones left are the senior papas & mamas. That will be a while.
Now if you want to make the case for a drastic slashing of Denver to a shadow of it's size, then YES, no-one will ever hold Denver... But, the mock bid isn't indicating that, and furthermore if they did do it, where are they going to put all these crews???? Considering the rate at which we're hiring, this would require making ORD and MCO very big, and / or a 4th base. In the near-term Denver is simply the only 'well' which can hold all these pilots at this time.
In the long run Denver will be senior in both seats, but for now, with only 3 bases and breakneck hiring, I strongly believe all bases will be available to newhire FO's within a bid period or two. Where you hold CA however is an entirely different story. (as we all know)
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